Weekly XBLA Sales Charts (Sort of)

The fine folks over at VGChartz, who give us the fanboy fueled weekly console hardware and software sales estimates, have started providing estimates of the weekly XBLA sales numbers. This is great as their site tends to be very good at guessing sales numbers in their other charts and gives us a bit more data than Major Nelson's weekly and yearly XBLA sales ranks. Included in their numbers are the weeks sales and total sales, which they acquire by polling MyGamerCard.net for gamers who have recently latched onto the title and were able to get achievements for the game. After this number is established, they expand the small, hardcore MyGamerCard userbase into the entirety of the Xbox 360 install base. Obviously, this method is prone to considerable error but I'm sure as time goes on, and they tune their system to Major Nelson's rankings this will get as accurate as we could come without getting the real numbers. Make sure you take a look at the sales charts and start spreading the word that more people should be buying RoboBlitz and Eets: Chowdown. [Via The Xbox Domain]

Comments

Yeah, I saw that. I love

Yeah, I saw that. I love that site btw ^^

But if you compare that list to the latest top 10 from Major Nelson they are very different. I'm not sure what to believe.. The official one should be more correct, but the VGChartz one makes much more sense.

I find the VG Chartz method

I find the VG Chartz method to be extraordinarily bad math. While it may give you an impression of sales here are my issues with their methods:

  • A site like MGC.net represents a more hardcore demographic in the first place, so when you extrapolate the data it'll skew toward the titles loved by the hardcore.
  • We already know that leaderboards are no indication of sales as multiple gamertags can access a game with a single purchase on a single console. So a leaderboard may be up to 8 times larger than the actual purchasing base. (It's likely not remotely that much higher, but you get my point.)
  • Any time you take a small, narrow sample of data that is not random (since they're taking the MGC.net userbase numbers) and extrapolate it to represent the larger base you will have a higher margin of error than a random/wider sampling and/or a larger sample.
  • Oh, and some arcade titles don't give you an achievement right away. Some people may never get the first achievement so that causes a error in the data as well.

As a result, I don't put too much stock in this new chart. Overall I like that site a lot but this seems to be a big stretch.

http://www.vgchartz.com/metho

http://www.vgchartz.com/methodology.php

If a statistics student handed in data collected like that they would be handed an 'F'.

: /

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